Bihar Election 2025: Seat-Sharing War Erupts in NDA and Grand Alliance, New Allies Complicate the Game

Patna:
The countdown to the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has begun, and the state’s political battleground is heating up fast. The NDA—led by the BJP and JD(U)—faces a new headache: restless allies Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi. Both leaders are no longer satisfied playing side characters and want a bigger slice of the pie, threatening to shake up the coalition’s fragile balance.

The November polls promise a showdown where caste, ambition, and history collide, making this more than just a numbers game. For the NDA, survival depends on how far it bends to keep its partners on board—without breaking apart.

Chirag Paswan Turns Up the Heat

Chirag Paswan, son of the late Dalit icon Ram Vilas Paswan, is determined to step out of his father’s shadow and claim the political spotlight. His party, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), has grown strong among the Paswan (Dusadh) community—a key Dalit group in Bihar.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Chirag pulled off a clean sweep, winning all five seats his party contested. That success has emboldened him to demand up to 40 of the 243 Assembly seats this time. His warning is blunt: if ignored, he may contest all 243 seats solo.

For Chirag, this isn’t just a bargaining tactic. In Hajipur, where his father once ruled, his confidence and appeal are undeniable. His ambition could make or break the NDA’s caste arithmetic.

Manjhi’s Bold Gambit

Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, who heads the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), is also flexing his muscles. Representing Bihar’s Mahadalit communities, especially the Mushahars, Manjhi scored a big win in 2024 by capturing the Gaya Lok Sabha seat.

Now, at 79, the veteran leader is pressing for all Assembly seats in Gaya and Aurangabad districts. He argues that his community’s loyalty to the NDA deserves greater respect. With decades of experience, Manjhi knows exactly how much his support matters—and he’s using it as leverage.

The BJP-JD(U) DilemmaThe BJP and JD(U) remain the NDA’s core, but cracks are visible.

• The BJP controls upper caste and non-Yadav OBC votes.
• The JD(U), led by Nitish Kumar, dominates among Kurmis and smaller Extremely Backward Classes.

Together, they’re powerful—but vulnerable.

In 2020, the NDA won 125 seats (BJP 74, JD(U) 43). But Chirag, then outside the NDA, hurt JD(U) badly by contesting 135 seats and cutting into Nitish’s votes, even though he won only one. The LJP’s family feud—between Chirag and his uncle Pashupati Paras—further split the party.

By 2024, however, the NDA regrouped strongly: BJP and JD(U) won 12 seats each, LJP(RV) grabbed 5, and Manjhi’s HAM secured 1, totaling 30 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats. Still, the opposition INDIA bloc and RJD remain a looming threat.

Trouble for Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving CM, is both a strength and a weakness. While his EBC-Kurmi base is loyal, questions about his health and gaffes have triggered speculation about his political future. The BJP, notably, hasn’t confirmed him as its CM face for 2025—fueling fresh tensions.

If Chirag and Manjhi’s demands go unmet, the NDA risks:

• Losing Dalit and Mahadalit votes.
• A seat clash between JD(U) and HAM in key strongholds.
• Further erosion of Nitish’s influence, which benefits the RJD.

NDA’s Seat-Sharing Puzzle

Reports suggest an initial formula:

• JD(U): 102 seats
• BJP: 101 seats
• LJP (Ram Vilas): 20 seats
• HAM: 10 seats
• RLM: 10 seats

But Chirag’s push for 40 seats and Manjhi’s Gaya-Aurangabad claim make this formula shaky. The BJP must play peacemaker—too many concessions could anger JD(U), while a hard stand could push Chirag to break away.

Meanwhile, the RJD is quietly gaining ground, adding Kushwahas to its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base and even welcoming Chirag’s uncle Paras to woo Dalits.

The Final Equation

Bihar politics has always been a story of shifting sands. In 2025, the NDA’s biggest challenge is not the opposition—it’s keeping its own alliance intact. Chirag’s ambition and Manjhi’s assertiveness could either strengthen the coalition or tear it apart.

If the BJP and JD(U) manage to balance these demands, the NDA could repeat its Lok Sabha success. But if the allies walk away, the RJD-led INDIA bloc might just snatch Bihar out of their hands.

One thing is certain: in Bihar, alliances are fragile, ambitions are fierce, and the road to power is anything but straightforward.